Project period: 2022 - 2025
Organisations: University of Otago, Victoria University of Wellington/Te Herenga Waka, Massey University, GNS Science/Te Pū Ao
Project location: East Coast of Te Ika-a-Māui/North Island
A team of researchers, led by the University of Otago, are working to create a new earthquake forecasting model, to better understand the future of the Hikurangi Subduction Zone.
Globally, subduction zones are the deadliest and most destructive geological phenomena, and the Hikurangi Subduction Zone is Aotearoa’s largest source of earthquake and tsunami hazard. The ability to forecast major earthquakes on this fault is of profound significance, with the potential to provide insights that could preserve infrastructure, economic security, and life.
The project team will begin by building a catalogue of past earthquakes and examining existing forecasting models. The team will then complete the development of their own model and begin using it to explore the relationship between seismic swarms and slow-slip events and what they mean more major earthquakes.
The project hopes to provide robust insights into Hikurangi Subduction Zone earthquake risk to insurers and relevant government agencies, as well as emergency management and response services to inform their work.
Forecasting future megaquakes on New Zealand’s biggest fault: the Hikurangi Subduction Zone is a Smart Ideas project, funded by the Ministry of Business, Innovation, and Employment.
The project team is led by two University of Otago researchers: Science Lead, Associate Professor Ting Wang, and Impact Lead, Professor Mark Stirling.
Image: Provided by Jessica Allen, displays earthquake event locations along the Hikurangi Subduction Zone, plotted by time, between 2018 and 2021. Event data provided by Dr Calum Chamberlain.
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Subduction Zones are areas where two tectonic plates meet and one dives down, or subducts, beneath the other. These plates can slowly creep past each other but they often become stuck, and pressure begins to build up.
If the fault moves suddenly, it will release that built up pressure quickly, in a matter of seconds or minutes, and that will be felt as strong shaking.
However, sometimes the plates can begin to slip slowly, releasing that built up pressure over weeks or even months, rather than seconds or minutes. This movement is still faster than normal, but slow enough that the movement can't be felt.
Slow-slip events can be associated with earthquake swarms, which are a sequence of many typically small to moderate sized earthquakes, clustered together in space and time.
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